| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | Michigan State | 6-23 | 1270.9 | -15.0 | 1255.9 | 22.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | North Texas | 30-33 | 1255.9 | -40.2 | 1215.7 | 39.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Illinois | 0-38 | 1215.7 | -2.2 | 1213.5 | 3.6% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Toledo | 14-13 | 1213.5 | +63.5 | 1277.0 | 19.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Rhode Island | 47-14 | 1277.0 | +0.0 | 1277.0 | 21.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 21-3 | 1277.0 | +63.1 | 1340.1 | 32.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Ball State | 42-0 | 1340.1 | +24.4 | 1364.5 | 64.5% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Miami (OH) | 17-26 | 1364.5 | -18.3 | 1346.2 | 27.4% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Central Michigan | 24-21 | 1346.2 | +35.9 | 1382.1 | 49.9% |
| 13 | Nov 11 2025 | W | Ohio | 17-13 | 1382.1 | +62.6 | 1444.7 | 20.6% |
| 14 | Nov 18 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 35-19 | 1444.7 | +29.6 | 1474.3 | 72.0% |
| 15 | Nov 25 2025 | W | Eastern Michigan | 31-21 | 1474.3 | +28.6 | 1502.9 | 73.0% |
| 16 | Dec 6 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 23-13 | 1502.9 | +41.8 | 1544.7 | 50.8% |
| 18 | Dec 19 2025 | W | Kennesaw State | 41-6 | 1544.7 | +41.3 | 1586.0 | 51.3% |